Email Tim
Labour appear all but nailed on to win the next Election and the only question seems to be by how much? We’re being told (with some justification) “Britain has been mis-managed by the Tories” and all we need is Labour in.
But the choice (if we can even call it that) is a depressingly familiar dating back 25 years: new Labour or blue Labour. Who do you want continuing to mis-manage Britains decline? But my contention in this article is that we will need more radical and wide-ranging reform than ‘business as usual’ with a different face and colour rosette in No 10. Sadly, it will take Labour to try, and fail, before public opinion will be ready for the change needed.
The time and ground is ready for another BrExit-style situation, with a sour public mood towards our existing politicians and system. There’s a demand for a different type of politics, not just different people running the same old show. The Tories tapped into it in 2019. Even allowed for COVID, they have not leant into it since. In my view they never really understood what (apart from “getting BrExit done”) to do with their majority or how to continue holding on to their voters.
So how do we get to where we need to be? ‘I wouldn’t start from here’ you may well reply. Britain has so much going for it, and not all of the changes we’ve seen in recent years have been bad. However many currents ills are the product of deep-seated issues and problems under various Govts and a failed consensus that has given us 20-25 years plus of:
£ Low growth and low productivity, especially in the public sector
£ Spending more than we’ve raised in taxes every year since 2001
£ High spending, borrowing and taxes at a 70 year high
£ Rising debt and interest payments
£ Unsustainably high levels of immigration
£ Costly ‘net zero’ policies (tho I accept our climate is changing)
£ An official and divisive ideology and policy of Multiculturalism
£ A culture that no longer uphold things like duty, personal responsibility & marriage
£ Power shifting away from elected Govts to unaccountable Quangos and the Courts
£ A declining birth rate below replacement levels
£ An over-reliance on cheap imported foreign labour
£ Millions of working-age Brits on benefits
£ Run-down and declining Armed forces
£ An unelected House of Parliament still in place (the Lords)
£ Devolution that has given a UK taxpayer-funded platform to separatists
£ The growth of a politics of envy, resentment and victimhood
£ Scandalously poor-value Govt contracts awarded via friends and contacts
£ Eroded free speech and ‘cancel culture’
£ Internal process & diversity targets becomes more important than delivery
Much of the above has happened under 14 years of Conservative-led Govts. Labour will be no better, and on many of the above issues may well be worse. The experience of Wales, where Labour have been in Govt since 1999, does not fill one with confidence! I agree with the polling showing that the country ‘wants change at Westminster’, but it is our Westminster system itself that needs change not just whoever is running it.
So where does this lead us? Labour will win and may well win big. The Tories will go into opposition and try to sort out what they believe in and stand for. Even many of their activists are at a loss to know.
There will be some brief post-election euphoria from the predictable suspects. Much of the London-based commentariat and media will celebrate. But then reality will set in. They will not enjoy the honeymoon that Tony Blair did when he took over a largely benign economy and public finances. Mid-term will come early for them as they grapple with a flat-lining economy and bombed-out public finances. With little or no extra money to spend they will have to keep their MPs and activists happy with things like clamping down on free speech, banning things and promoting politically correct or ‘woke’ measures.
The Conservatives will be much reduced, unpopular and lacking credibility. It may take a while for people to realise “oh, so Labour couldn’t fix it either”. The Lib Dems will win more seats at the general Election and may I fancy overtake the SNP as the Commons third party. But if Labour don’t quite get the huge swing needed (120 seats must be won just for a bare majority)and fall short, they could well be in some form of Govt with them.
So we must hope that the narrative of “it’s the Tories fault, but Labour will fix it” will be laid bare. This will open the space for a new narrative. We need a growing economy and controlled borders with lower immigration. BrExit needs to be seized and promoted, not regarding as some sort of embarrassing problem to be minimised.
A strong Reform UK, with Nigel Farage reinvolved, could well be the ‘go-to’ By-election winners under the next Govt, as UKIP was in 2014. What;s needed may take more than one election cycle. It has worked well in Canada, where the Conservatives merged with their equivalent of Reform, and now look likely to oust Trudeau.
First-past-the-post will not make it easy, but the two-Party spell has to be broken. However, Britain will need to suffer Labour as its next Govt before it can happen. The timing and the ground is right, we just need the right circumstances.
