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I always found Tony Blair a very reliable political guide. If he was for something, it was almost certainly a bad idea. New Labour were of course the founding fathers of Devolution, so I’m tempted to say ‘I rest my case’. But, as ever, things are a bit more complicated than that- plus this wouldn’t be much of an article!
Don’t get me wrong- I’m not saying that Devolution should be abolished. Far from it, in fact. But the UK is certainly under some strain at the moment. BrExit and COVID Lockdowns have been the 2 main recent issues of division.
Successive Govts- including sadly Conservative ones- have quite simply failed to make the case for the United Kingdom. Instead the emphasis has been on parcelling out powers , and giving extra taxpayer funding, to London, metro-Mayors and the devolved Nations.
Recently in Scotland, polls have shown the SNP predicted to do well in the 2021 elections. This, along with claims of growing separatist feeling in Wales and N.Ireland, have raised questions over the UKs future. (Please note that I don’t use the word Independence to describe wanting to leave the UK and join the EU- there will be precious little of that in todays EU).
It is also worth noting that many of the most prominent devolved Nations and metro-Mayor authorities are all led by left-wing parties (Labour or the SNP). For example: Scotland, Wales, London, Manchester and Liverpool. Sadiq Khans’ mayoralty of London has been a particular disaster, with rising crime and a bankrupt transport system.
Some of these were created under Conservative-led govts, but have given Labour Mayors a platform to attack their creator. Here’s a typical example ‘Liverpools Labour mayor accuses Rishi Sunak of cheating the north on furlough’:
I’m glad we have the first Conservative govt with a decent majority since 1987 under Maggie Thatcher, but we must admit the ‘inconvenient truth’ that much of our country is still run by the Left.
I spent about 10 years working at the City office of one of the big Scottish financial companies. It employed about 500 staff in Scotland, and was one of the larger employers north of the border. Here’s the thing tho- only about 15% of its business came from within Scotland. In other words, 85% of the business that supported those hundreds of jobs in Scotland came from England, Wales and N.Ireland. The City office alone did about 15% too.
This was a good example of one of the benefits of the UK, a case that successive Governments have been slow to make.
The UK, with our shared history and common language, has been very successful as:
£ A Single economic and trade area: fish bought in Aberdare (S.Wales) supports jobs in Aberdeen. Whisky drunk in London supports jobs in Highland distilleries. Scotland exports 3 times more trade to the rest of the UK than it does to the EU (60% to UK, 20% to EU and 20% to rest of the World).
£ A Defence and security partnership: we beat the Nazis, liberated the Falklands, won the Cold war and are members of NATO together. Let us not be complacent in an increasingly uncertain and insecure world. Scotland has an RAF Base, a large naval base (with 7000 jobs) and proud Regiments in the British Army.
£ A Combined resources, tax, spending and borrowing base. The UK only needs eg one set of Embassies around the world and one Army. The devolved Nations contribute to the UKs joint tax base of course. However, they all receive a spending dividend from UK membership. See here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-release-shows-the-value-of-the-union-to-the-nations-of-the-uk
£ A Stable and successful Currency union- the SNP have never answered what currency they’d want? They claim “its Scotlands pound too”. Yes it is- but only whilst Scotland is still in the UK! See here on the currency risks:
Those of us on the BrExit and Unionist side must acknowledge that N.Ireland and Scotland voted for Remain, whilst Wales and England voted for Leave. We must try and understand how others see us. The unexpected election of Trump further raised the political temperature. There was a definite outbreak of BTSD- BrExit and Trump Derangement Syndrome! We then had several years of political chaos, uncertainty and division as attempts were made to overthrow how we’d voted. The inconclusive 2017 election resulted in a paralysed Westminster Parliament. The Conservatives have a majority that wasn’t reflected north of the border. The restrictions of Lockdown have soured the public mood across the whole country. This has all been grist to the Separatist mill.
Devolution, we were assured by Tony Blair, would kill off the SNPs separatist case. On the contrary, it has given the SNP a UK taxpayer-funded platform to promote it! Holding the powers of Scottish government and First Minister (both created by Devolution) has given them huge resources and influence at their disposal.
To be fair, the SNP have achieved this via the ballot box and cleverly taken full advantage of it. Salmond and Sturgeon have both been dominant political figures. Her daily COVID briefings are skilfully turned into SNP party political broadcasts. Many opportunities have been taken to differentiate Scotland from the UK, from a different (and lower) drink-drive limit to different regulations over COVID Lockdown. No potential grievance is left to rest.
We now hear that Scotland and Wales are to criminalise loving and caring parents who may occasionally resort to smacking their children. They seem to think they know better than the parents! This will increase pressure on England to do the same.
The opposition in Scotland is hopelessly divided: Labour are struggling and down to 1 Westminster seat. Ruth Davidson had the chutzpah to take the SNP on, and we wish her and new Tory leader Douglas Ross well. Ross has recently commented on the SNPs skilful use of media, Boris’ apparent popularity issues in Scotland and spoken of an ‘emotional disconnect’ between Scotland and London. George Galloways new Party has also entered the fray, but it remains to be seen if he will shake things up positively or merely further split the anti-SNP vote.
Westminster- blamed of course for many ills- does however have an ace up its sleeve: no (legal) Referendum can be held without its consent. Even if a 2nd vote were to be ever allowed, this would give the then UK Govt an effective veto over the timing, rules and conditions. The 2014 vote took place under a 2012 agreement that gave the SNP everything they wanted, naively asked nothing of them plus gave them a nearly 2 year window.
All too many basic issues and questions are still unanswered:
£ Agreement in principle to take over a fair share of the UKs national debt
£ Future currency
£ Funding for public services, without access to the UKs shared tax and borrowing base
£ Joining the EU would mean powers having to be surrendered back to Brussels
£ The status of British military assets and bases that are vital to the UKs national defence and security
£ Accepting the result as the full and final verdict
So, where do we go from here? Further and wider political reform is needed. Including in my view the following, with efforts made to agree as much as possible on a cross-party basis:
£ A majority-elected Upper house of Parliament, with designated seats for the 3 devolved Nations (amongst others)
£ An English Parliament sitting in the Midlands (with a good possibility of a centre-right majority)- lets not forget England!
£ A new Bill of British Rights and Responsibilities, clarifying eg our stance on human rights issues
£ A fairer and more representative voting system for Westminster and local elections
£ We may well also need a new post-BrExit settlement with Scotland, a ‘new deal’ for the Union
If the SNP win in 2021 I'm not sure if they can be put off forever. Cameron spoke of a ‘Referendum, not a Neverendum’. This then raises the possibility of a UK-wide Referendum early in the next UK Parliament. This might help take some of the heat off Scotland. Some of the above should be on the ballot paper plus, subject to SNP answers to basic questions, the question of Scottish separation. And they might vote to leave, especially if the case continues to go unmade. Yes, it would be a blow. But the ‘new UK’ of England, Wales and N.Ireland would be a very viable economic and financial country.
Overall tho, I’m optimistic. The difficulties of BrExit and COVID Lockdowns have created a ‘perfect storm’ for discontent. Both issues will hopefully ease during 2021. We have a successful 300-year plus shared history that should endure beyond temporary difficulties. But the issues and problems can’t be put off forever and we can only hold the UK together with continued assent.
Post-BrExit we can and should be global free trade champions. We are a prosperous nation of nearly 70m people, with world class armed forces, diplomatic networks and a global financial centre. We were never ‘at the heart of Europe’ but we are at the heart of the Commonwealth, with 50 countries and over 2 billion people. Britain is one of only 5 countries with a permanent seat on the UN security council. We are leaders in music, fashion, theatre, the arts and so much more.
So yes, I’m optimistic.
Copyright Tim Scott
