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I wasn’t surprised the Lib Dems won C and A, I had always thought it would be close but was surprised by the margin.
It’s the kind of well-heeled and Remainy seat they tend to win. Add in HS2 going right through the middle of it, plans for more house-building and a Govt struggling with the biggest public health crisis in a century and you had the perfect storm for an upset.
The Lib Dems (and their predecessors) have always historically been a strong by-election party.
By-elections have a flavour and character all of their own. When I was in UKIP, I went to just about every one going. Significantly, most of these were during a time when the Lib Dems were in Govt and UKIP benefited from much of the discontent. Voters know it’s a ‘free hit’ and won’t change the Govt. The main challenger (not in Govt) has a lot of wiggle-room to exploit local and national discontents. “Lend us your vote to send them a message”.
Former MP Cheryl Gillan was well-known and had been a vocal opponent of HS2. Much of it will now go under the seat, in a huge tunnel. The Tories chose a local candidate, Peter Fleet, who I gather campaigned well. The Lib Dems have supported HS2 and more house building, but used their usual by-election wiggle room to cynically exploit these issues. They are masters at encouraging tactical voting. Activists from all over the country are bused in. The Tory vote slightly more than halved, suggesting that many of their voters stayed at home.
It’s also alleged that Boris’ character and performance was on the ballot paper. Personally, I like and support him. He’s a winner and got rid of the menace posed by Corbyn. But many who voted Remain will not forgive him for helping to win, and then deliver, BrExit. For some, the Lockdowns have been too severe. For others, not severe enough.
It was also a poor result for Labour (whose vote collapsed to behind the Greens) and for Reform UK, the successors to the Brexit Party. The former look as far away from being able to form a Govt as ever. The Tories should take some comfort in that. The latter- coming up with some interesting ideas and policies- are struggling for political space with a Govt that have delivered BrExit.
But is it, as ‘opportunistic Ed’ Davey is claiming for the Lib Dems, a break-through result?
It's certainly an impressive result. But despite all their by-elections wins over the years, the Lib Dems only won 11 seats in 2019. Being in Govt under the Coalition ruined them, they had 57 seats in 2010. Many of these seats were either won first at a by-election, or following a breakthrough at local level. Their appeal depends in large part on being the ‘the protest vote party’. People vote differently when confronted with the hard and binary choices of a general election. However, if the Lib Dems play their cards right might they have a chance of retaining the seat in 2023/24? Possibly. However I don’t think it’s a harbinger, or sign of things to come, of a wider break-through by them.
On a wider note, we need to be build more homes whether we like it or not. We’ve had 20 years of large-scale immigration under successive Govts. The average first-time buyer is now in their mid 30s. We’re asking people to support capitalism, whilst making it more and more difficult to acquire any capital. Is it any wonder younger people are much more likely to vote Labour? Those of us fortunate enough to be on the housing ladder have often done very well out of it. Yes, some housing plans and projects have been excessive. But where are our children and grandchildren going to live? There are no easy answers.
So will another result of this by-election be the Govt scaling back its house building plans? We will wait and see.
ENDS---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright Tim Scott 18/6/21
