Email Tim
The Conservatives deserve credit for ‘getting BrExit done’ and the timely vaccine roll-out. The latter was a good example of the advantages of BrExit, as we were able to forge ahead with our own procurement and not have to rely on Brussels to do the ordering for us. Defence has received a generous settlement, levelling-up is promised (but needs fleshing out), Nuclear power is receiving long overdue attention, higher wages are promised.
Whilst I wish them well, it must be said that in some other areas their record is looking a bit mixed. They are looking weak and indecisive on both the cross-Channel migrant crisis and the road-blockers of Extinction Rebellion. We are yet to “take back control” of our borders.
The true costs of ‘net zero’ remain shrouded in mystery. Taxes are at a 70 year high. Restrictions on basic freedoms, unknown outside of war-time, have been imposed. Supply chain issues, post BrExit and Lockdowns, were predictable and do not seem to have been well prepared for- even allowing for continuing restrictions. There’s an impression of catching up and of responding only when pushed. The Government seem swept along by events, and needs a clearer post-BrExit and post-COVID vision.
The political pressure they face in Parliament and from the Media is overwhelmingly from the Left. “Why aren’t you spending even more” seems to be the most common cry, ironic at a time when Lockdowns and furlough have blown a huge hole in the public finances. They still have an opinion lead though, but how come? Because Labour are even worse! I am genuinely torn between hoping they sort out their identity-obsessed ‘loony left’ so as to provide a half-decent Opposition, and hoping they don’t- so they can stay unelectable.
I wish Boris well. Our Tory MP (Joy Morrissey) is very good, and a welcome change from Dominic Grieve (whom I had stood against for UKIP). So I don’t regret voting for a Conservative govt, but I’m left hoping we’re going to get a more determined and consistent one!
With all this in mind, I attending Reform UKs first party conference (in Manchester). I have attended past Tory conferences and do have a Conservative membership. I would have happily attended theirs too, but had to be at work on Monday. Next year. I wasn’t quite sure what to expect, but it was better than I thought. My yardstick was past UKIP conferences- always enthusiastic, rambunctious and threatening to burst forth with ‘loose cannon’ incidents.
They had over 500 register at relatively short notice. The programme was varied and interesting, with several policy areas presented. The conference was well run and organised by Paul Oakden, the partys chief executive. We heard from Cei Dewar- a passionate Welsh cleric, Nick Buckley of ‘cancel culture’ fame, Dominique Samuels, Isabel Oakeshott, deputy leader Dr David Bull and of course Richard Tice.
Donations are up, the media are starting to take notice and the poll rating is hovering around 5%. Supporters are now pukka members and the next Leader will be elected by them. The membership will be tiered- a nice idea, but it did all look a bit complicated with extra points for attending an action day, etc.
Inheriting the data-base and social media of the BrExit Party has given them a good start. They plan to fight every seat in England and Wales at the next general election and most in Scotland. This would make them only one of only 4 or 5 parties putting up more than 500 candidates. Tice has promised ‘no standing down’. Over 300 have already applied and we were promised 400 in place by Christmas (an ambitious target IMHO).
Overall, they are starting to look good, and I certainly feel much in common with them. Electoral reform, energy policy, free speech, net zero and a lower taxed, smartly regulated and higher growth economy were all hot button issues. However, they do seem a bit reticent on immigration? But- as with UKIP- they have only limited resources and face the prospect of the Lib Dems (long out of Coalition) being the natural home of the protest vote. See my article below on the Chesham and Amersham by-election.
The rise of UKIP from about 2012 was fuelled by a perfect storm. Farages leadership (he was already well-known), discontent over our EU membership, a Tory government in a compromising Coalition, large-scale immigration and the Lib Dems (the usual home of the protest vote) being in government.
Tice is charismatic, approachable, a good media performer and easy to get on with. “We’re all reformers now” he quips and has a strong belief in Britains potential.
Some are saying “they’ll help tip out the Tories and let Labour in”. It’s rarely, if ever, that simple. UKIPs won only 3% of the national vote in 2010- with no Tory majority- and then 13% in 2015, where the Tories did win a majority. However, they do face an electoral system that is very unfair on smaller parties whose support is spread across the country.
In summary, they deserve to be on the up. The Tories need pressure from the right too, and someone to help keep them honest. Reform are coming up with some good ideas, tho some are a bit niche. I hope they manage to develop an immigration narrative that can give them a broader cut through and publicity.
Let's see how they do at the upcoming Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election, where Tice is the candidate. The Libs Dems came 3rd in 2019, on only 8%- plus there's no HS2- so I am not expecting another of their shock wins. I hope Tice does well, and makes a dent in the Tory majority.
Having overseen 84 constituencies as SE Chairman at UKIP, stood for Parliament, travelled to every by-election going, plus the day job, I’m sure there are many others who can step up. The Freedom Association and @BritMnsBusn BritainMeansBusiness on Twitter (run in co-operation with Tice) are my main focus now.
Never have the old proverbs “may you live in interesting times” and “what a time to be alive” been more true. Reform is indeed needed.
